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Follow this logic - 11/9/2007 9:21:42 PM

MasterDoc1

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Here is the latest gallup poll of registered republicans:
Gallup Poll Oct 12-14, 2007 Rudy Giuliani 32%, Fred Thompson 18%, John McCain 14%, Mitt Romney 10%, Mike Huckabee 6%, Ron Paul 5%, Sam Brownback 2%, Tom Tancredo 2%, Duncan Hunter 1%, None/No opinion 9%
let's postulate 100,000 registered republicans in a given state.
That would seemingly predict votes as follows
Guliani 32,000
Thompson 18,000
mccain 14,000
romney 10,000
huckabee 6000
paul 5000
etc.
The problem with this analysis is that primary elections traditionally get VERY low turnout. Let's say it's 10% of those eligible (it actually is usually a little less).
so the actual number, in terms of votes actually cast, would be around
guliani 3200
thompson 1800
mccain 1400
romney 1000
huckabee 600
paul 500
Following me so far?
Now here is the kicker: if there is one thing the last few months have proven it's that Ron Paul's supporters are VERY enthusiastic (some would say too much so). NO ONE can deny this.So let's assume that they get to the polls in disproportionate numbers; say 65% of them come out and vote.
We then get numbers around
Paul 3900
guliani 3600
thompson 1800 etc
and Ron Paul wins.
So even if we assume the 5% figure for Pauls support is correct (I think there are SEVERAL reasons it greatly understates his support) he very possibly could STILL win.
I'm not guaranteeing this but doesn't it make sense given the fervent nature of his supporters?
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RE: Follow this logic - 11/9/2007 9:40:39 PM

UtopianRanger

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Yes.... Those polls are absolute shit and designed to set up a desired scenario /outcome.

- R

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RE: Follow this logic - 11/9/2007 10:12:42 PM

mnottertail

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Lets consider reality----

Rudy has cooked his own stupid ass......... there is around a year before the elections.

You heard it here first!!!!

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RE: Follow this logic - 11/9/2007 10:57:44 PM

NeedToUseYou

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I think their is some truth in what you say. I will personally make sure everyone I know that will vote for Ron Paul will be there. No doubt. I highly doubt the other candidates followers will organize for free. If someone wants a ride to vote Ron Paul I'll find them one, even if I have to pay for the cab(locally, can't afford the whole country)!!! Seriously, from what I've seen of people that do support Ron, I really think 90%+ of them will be there to cast a vote. I couldn't imagine it being much lower, that would blow my mind.

So, that does make some amount of sense, I'm not one to claim ron paul is really running at 20% or something because of poll manipulation, I think the support is probably a percent or two higher than polling for various reasons. But the motivation of those that do support him, is way beyond the other candidates. So, the question really isn't if 90% plus of Paul supporters will vote, but what percentage of Rudy, and Romney supporters will vote. I think it will at least be 2 to 1 in terms of turn out per 100 supporters. He does need to get more support though, but that is happening. Is it happening fast enough, I'm not sure. If he can break that 10% mark, he'd have a good chance of winning even if rudy or romney are still ahead substantially in polling, simply because the turnout will be massive. There is nothing more more motivated(and sometimes annoying), than a new paulite, at least in the context of presidential elections. LOL.

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RE: Follow this logic - 11/10/2007 8:07:50 AM

MasterDoc1

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Well put, Need. I agree. How did Rudy cook his ass?

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RE: Follow this logic - 11/10/2007 8:16:14 AM

RealityLicks

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Will Giuliani voters be quite so complacent? Traditionally over here, the Right have higher turnouts, so other parties ensure they spend extra rousing their people to vote in marginals. Since all others have greater financial clout than Paul and will be at least as aware as you are of this anomaly, this might suggest your optimism is not well-founded.

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RE: Follow this logic - 11/10/2007 8:35:12 AM

MasterDoc1

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All we can go by, reality, is past experience. I don't see any reason to think that Guliani voters will turn out in record percentages whereas everyone in America can tell you that there is substantial evidence of that for Paul supporters.
You also seem to believe that Guliani has substantially greater financial clout than Paul. As of Oct 1 that was the case, but only by 3 to 1. And given Paul's recent news-making financial successes:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/columnist/raasch/2007-11-08-raasch_N.htm
and the much greater efficiency of his campaign, that is no longer true.

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RE: Follow this logic - 11/10/2007 8:47:13 AM

RealityLicks

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I'm commenting purely as a neutral, I'm not a fan of either candidate but if its down to a close call my gut tells me to favour Giuliani's chances. But this is the oddest US Presidential trail I can remember.

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RE: Follow this logic - 11/10/2007 5:36:03 PM

GoddessDustyGold

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RealityLicks

I'm commenting purely as a neutral, I'm not a fan of either candidate but if its down to a close call my gut tells me to favour Giuliani's chances. But this is the oddest US Presidential trail I can remember.

Just as a matter of curiosity, RL, does your gut telling you to favor Guiliani's chances mean that you would also, if you were a citizen of the USA, that is, vote for him?

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